10 Mar 2026

Ex-German Foreign Minister says Travel & Tourism leaders must “understand the new world order”

ITB Berlin, the world’s largest travel trade show, celebrated its 60th anniversary this year under the theme of “Achieving Balance in Tourism.” Just three days before its opening, the event was overshadowed and disrupted by the 28 February US-Israeli attack on Iran. However, that allowed the keynote speaker, former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer, to draw upon his past diplomatic experience to reflect on the future of global geopolitics.

He said the outlook does not look positive. “The new world order is not in favour of tourism. The risks will increase and you have to be prepared as an industry for these risks.”

Thanks to a “failing away” of the rules-based world order, Travel & Tourism can expect to become a victim of confrontations and conflicts stemming from Great Power rivalries. The conflict in the Gulf is an example. The region is not just a hub of transport and tourism but also the “gas station of the world.” He said, “It’s a matter of fact that the promised destination of Dubai is nowadays a place of war, of threat, and I don’t think you have to be a genius to understand that your customers are not paying for risking their life in a beautiful hotel.”

He cited his own tenure as Foreign Minister when the devastating tsunami struck on Boxing Day 2004. Thousands of affected European holiday-makers were expecting help from their respective governments at a time when government officials were themselves taking a festive season break.

Travel & Tourism will have to be prepared to face more such polycrises in future. His two most important pointers were contained in these quotes:

(+) “Human beings will continue to travel even under the most serious circumstances and you as a tourist industry, you are earning your money by providing the services. You will need a leadership who understands the world order, who can assess what will come and that’s the challenge for you as an industry, for your big companies. You need leadership which understands the challenges for your business, for your clients.”

(+) “I think the leader of the tourist industry, at least of the big companies, must be part of the diplomatic developments. They must understand it. Yes, that’s the new qualification which is needed.”

According to the ITB 2026 website, Mr Fischer is a former Green Party politicians who also served as Germany’s Vice Chancellor. He was involved in the nuclear negotiations with Iran years ago and is married to the daughter of an Iranian opposition figure. The full text of his speech and the Q&A session follow:

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I’m very pleased to address the issue of the global changes for your industry.

I will come to the actual developments a little bit later because it fits perfectly into our subject.

We are facing nowadays profound changes in the global system.

The time when a rules-based order was defining the reality on the global stage seem to be over.

What is the alternative?

What we see now is a rule-based order failing away.

These systems can lead to confrontation and my first advice to your industry would be there will be no way back to the old order.

The future will be power-based and this means the rivalry of big powers. This means the presence of conflicts more than in the past, they will take place in the future.

We see it nowadays.

You see the sensitivity of your industry.

The Gulf is in a severe crisis.

It’s the reality of war.

War is not very attractive for your industry.

As you see, it creates a lot of problems. You have the big airport hubs in the Gulf in a very close area.

They are all blocked.

So it’s not only the question of tourism there but it’s also a question of the relation of the connections between Europe and Southeast Asia or East Asia.

We see there a very bloody confrontation and I don’t know what will be the perspective of the Emirates or Qatar and other smaller states in the region. But I think they will have to readjust their business model especially Dubai.

From my view they will lose the spirit of the place.

I don’t see that there will be a smooth outcome of this crisis or this war.

Honestly I’m pretty pessimistic that this will not be a short war and I don’t think that there will be a smooth outcome.

So my theory is that there will be a longstanding confrontation, a very bloody confrontation.

Whether Iran can be kept together, it’s an open question.

It’s a huge country with different ethnic groups with a long-standing war in the far east of the country in Baluchistan. Also a problem in the west with the Kurds.

So this will be one of the key questions. Can this country be kept together?

This has a direct impact consequence for the whole Gulf region. If there will be a longstanding terror-sponsored confrontation, this will lead to insecurity, instability in the Gulf.

The Gulf is not only an very attractive location for tourists, but it’s the gas station of the world economy.

Don’t forget that. So what we see is an almost unpredictable future in this region with the important airports with attractive destination for tourists and the gas station of the world economy.

If there will take place a disintegration of a decisive country like Iran, if there will be a kind of civil war and don’t forget what happened few weeks ago in this country. Around 60,000 people were executed on the streets. Shot in the eyes.

I mean there is such a tremendous hate in this country that it’s hard to predict that there will be a smooth outcome.

If I would think in a rational way, I would say at the end there must be an agreement between the more rational forces of the existing regime and of the opposition to avoid a civil war to avoid a disintegration of the country.

But whether this will take place, I wouldn’t bet on that. But this seemed to be the only rational and more or less peaceful outcome.

This will have consequences for the whole region.

So I think it would be wise to adjust to this situation in this important area.

On the other side, the real changes which are taking place are taking place on the highest level.

I’m talking about China. I’m talking about the US.

These will be the two leading superpowers of the 21st century.

In the US, you see leadership. Now I have to be very moderate.

You would see a leadership which is unpredictable, which is contradictory in its decision making and the Chinese leadership seem to be more rational.

I think there will be a confrontation there, I don’t know whether it will be a violent military confrontation or a political confrontation.

If you look in the perspective of the tourist industry to the Far East.

Japan – I was told that the market there almost collapsed after the new prime minister of Japan made some words about what will happen if China will attack Taiwan.

This led to a collapse of tourism from China to Japan which was an important factor.

So we see that even political confrontations words can lead into a very unpleasant situation for your industry.

So when we talk about this new power-based world order based on the rivalry of big global powers, you should be aware that this will be the future. This will define the future.

And allow me to share an experience at the end of 2004.

It’s not only a political confrontation. It’s not only military confrontation.

I was in the office as Foreign Minister at Christmas day when the tsunami happened.

I was not aware that thousands of our citizens were for Christmas holidays with their family in the region.

It was 10,000 kilometers away. It was Christmas, so all our diplomatic representations in the region had also holidays.

It was a brand new experience because the people in this terrible situation of the tsunami, our people, Europeans, Germans, British, Scandinavians, they asked where is our government for help.

In this moment, I realized that there is a new problem, global tourism.

It was important that we developed new structures together with the industry in crisis reaction.

And I think you would be well advised based on the experience of the war in the Gulf that you would be prepared for such events in the future because it will happen again.

So from that point of view the new world order is not in favor of tourism. The risks will increase and you have to be prepared as an industry for these risks.

Because on the other side the positive message is people will not stop to travel.

Definitely not.

We are moving into a new world order with increased insecurities, with new risks and old risks. War is an old risk with the experience of natural disasters.

So my advice would be that the industry, the tourist industry on a global level should engage itself more in reducing the risks, in being prepared in a crisis reaction.

I think this will be extremely important, an efficient and fast crisis reaction.

This is what your customers will expect from you.

So ladies and gentlemen, I’m sorry that I couldn’t give you a more positive bright picture, but I’m not responsible for the news.

I have to live with them like you and I have to try to interpret these news.

It’s a matter of fact that the promised destination as Dubai is nowadays a place of war, of threat, and I don’t think you have to be a genius to understand that your customers are not paying for risking their life in a beautiful hotel.

What they want is a positive experience.

So risk management will be one of the future challenges for your industry together with the public and state institutions.

There will be better days in the future.

But when, I don’t know. What I know is that the new world order based on the rivalry of big powers will be more insecure than the old rules-based order.

So my advice is prepare for the new reality.

Thank you very much.

QUESTION AND ANSWER

Question: What was your first thought on Saturday when the news appeared also maybe on your timeline on your phone that now the escalation happened. What did you think?

Answer: I expected it. This is a very good example how you as an industry must be prepared because it was obvious there was the uprising of the people, the brutal repression of the uprising and then there was a political signal … Netanyahu was traveling to DC to meet the American president and at that point for me it was quite clear something will happen. So my advice would be that as an industry you have to follow very carefully what’s going on. But connecting these dots, it’s sometimes difficult for the industry.

Question: So what would be your recommendation? Should you work further with political stakeholders to read these meetings in a specific you know prediction?

Answer: Well I think the leader of the tourist industry at least of the big companies must be part of the diplomatic developments. They must understand it. Yeah, that’s the new qualification which is needed.

Question: I want to come back to what you said, coming from a rule-based order to a power-based order and you mentioned China, USA, Russia as troublemaker, India, but you haven’t mentioned the United .. player and in that power-based order. So, where do you see the Europeans?

Answer: The European Union is not a power. I just wanted to make sure that I understood you correctly. [laughter] The European Union is a union of independent states. In military terms, Europe is not a power. And in political terms, it’s also complicated. We have in Europe at the moment an extreme challenge. Ukraine and Russia as a power who is not accepting the old rules that borders are untouchable and can only be changed based on consensus.

Russia is trying to eliminate a member of the UN, a democratic state, a neighbor state and I think this is for Europe a longstanding challenge and Europe will grow according to this challenge. The pressure from outside will make Europe move into the direction to become a power but it will need time. It will need time.

Question: What is your precise recommendation for the European Union as itself to gain strength and to build up that resilience? Maybe we have a nice message to Brussels.

Answer: To be honest, if I would try to answer this, it would be another long speech because it’s not so easy.

The Europeans must unite this hour.

In the center is Germany and France. If Germany and France are sticking together, I’m pretty optimistic. And the UK is also … they left, but under the pressure from the Russian invasion in Ukraine, they came very close together with France and Germany, the E3.

I think these are important steps and we have in the east Putin but now in the west Donald Trump and Donald Trump is saying goodbye to the transatlantic relationship.

Don’t fool yourself. So the first time in our history as Europeans we are alone and we have to adjust to this situation and this will make the Europeans move.

The European Union is not constructed for the power. The European Union is constructed for the economy, for finance, for the rule of law, but not for power. This will depend from the bigger countries.

Question: But is Germany ready for these times of unpredictability? What you just mentioned that everything is very unpredictable not just for the travel industry but also for the policymakers. How would you see the German powerhouse doing so far?

Answer: Well, Germany is on the move. We have a complicated history and it’s not so easy for my country because based on the history there are concerns of our neighbors but we are on the move and I’m sure Germany will make it but not alone together with France together with the UK and others in Europe.

Question: Then we look into the questions on the Gulf area. Can tourism still deliver on its promise of bringing peace when places like Dubai are now under fire? So how would you see the tourism as a peace-builder?

Answer: I have some doubts. Joschka Fisher as a tourist never thought when I was traveling — and I like to travel — that I’m at peace with…Tourism is benefiting from peace, from stability, but whether tourism can create peace and stability. I have my doubts.

Question: You mentioned that Russia is trying to remove the old rule that borders are untouchable. Would you say the same about the US and Israel?

Answer: I didn’t expect such complicated…..

I think we shouldn’t forget the attack of Hamas on the state of Israel.

It was Hamas who attacked Israel, who started a war… the terrible war about Gaza.

The Israeli Palestinian conflict is about territory .. is about borders. Yes, from both sides. Both sides are following more or less the headline “from the river to the sea.” Both sides want the whole of Palestine.

But for me, the existence, the very existence of the state of Israel for me is untouchable.

The right of existence for Israel is the key question.

As a foreign minister, I was seriously engaged in trying to find an agreement between both sides.

I know in the details the positions of both sides and it’s a tragic conflict.

Whether the US is well advised to threaten Denmark to take over Greenland.

It’s a crazy idea.

I mean, Denmark was one of the closest allies of the United States after the Second World War.

And suddenly Trump had the idea that the US had a lack of icebergs.

So take over Greenland. And the US forces are present in (Greenland) since of the cold war. The US has bases in Greenland. The US and Denmark are members of NATO, close friends.

It’s a tricky question and it…Well, the question is not so tricky.

It’s a crazy idea what Donald Trump had about…

It’s more one last sentence to answer the question in a very direct and simple way. Any form of military aggression to gain more territory or if you want to eliminate a neighbor state.

It’s a terrible idea. It’s a terrible mistake. I clearly distance myself.

Question: Does it come from for all sides? This, this argument. Do you mean all sides that it’s a terrible idea for everybody who’s trying to invade? Can you give me a positive example? It is of course our topic of this ITB how to balance the industry but how can tourism be led into balance? What would be your take on that?

Answer: Well first the basics. Conflicts, natural disasters, war is part of human life and this will not change.

It’s a beautiful idea that war and confrontation between human beings can be eliminated.

But as an old guy, I know this is an illusion.

Secondly, human beings will continue to travel even under the most serious circumstances and you as a tourist industry, you are earning your money by providing the services.

You will need a leadership who understands the world order, who can assess what will come and that’s the challenge for you as an industry, for your big companies. You need leadership which understands the challenges for your business, for your clients.

Thank you so much.