Travel Impact Newswire

30 Jun 2025

PATA forecast confirms geopolitics poses top risk and threat to Travel & Tourism

Imtiaz Muqbil

Bangkok – Geopolitical turbulence is now indisputably the leading risk and threat facing Travel & Tourism, according to visitor arrivals forecasts presented by the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA). Statistical data presented at a webinar on 26 June clearly showed how countries and regions are being impacted by multiple geopolitical conflicts, and will continue to be impacted in the years ahead.

The webinar concluded with one participant asking a core question: “What can we do about it?”

Addressed by Dr. Anyu Liu, Assistant Professor, School of Hotel and Tourism Management, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, the webinar presented the latest data from the PATA Visitor Forecasts covering 2025-2029.

In its announcement, PATA said, “As the global tourism industry moves beyond the recovery phase, Asia Pacific stands at the forefront of a new era marked by shifting demand patterns, technological acceleration, and a renewed commitment to sustainability.” It added, “Industry professionals must now prepare not just for recovery, but for transformation driven by global megatrends, from AI integration to geopolitical flux and generational shifts in travel motivations.”

Here is a brief summary of the webinar. The images, all from the presentation, show clearly how visitor flows are being impacted by geopolitical events as well as other factors. Discussing details was beyond the scope of the webinar, but I have plugged that gap with my own analysis to get the inevitable discourse going.

[] The Israel-Iran clash was mentioned several times. A direct offshoot of the Israel-Palestine conflict, this is leading to global political, social, cultural and ethnic polarisation and will continue to destabilise Travel & Tourism. A longer, wider Israel-Iran war would have sunk global Travel & Tourism. Although the situation has calmed down, it is widely believed to be only a temporary band-aid which fails to address underlying root causes as well as associated factors such as the Israeli genocide in Gaza and the growing global animosity against the Jewish state.

[] The Russia-Ukraine war was also mentioned, but infrequently. Although it appears to be having scant impact on Travel & Tourism in the Asia-Pacific, there is no doubt that had it not been raging, visitor arrivals from both Russia and Ukraine would be much higher, especially in the winter months.

[] The United States is one of the worst affected countries, thanks to self-inflicted wounds caused by the Trump administration’s “Make America Great Again” policies — the crackdown on migrants, bans on visitors from several countries, attacks on university students for pro-Palestinian activism, surveilling the social media posts of visa applicants, as well as the global tariff wars, especially against its primary source-markets, China, Europe, Canada and Mexico. The U.S. is also a key player in the Middle East conflict as a key financial, political and diplomatic backer of Israel. The bombing of Iran on behalf of Israel has also severely damaged its brand image.

[] By region, South Asia is the worst affected. In spite of being arguably the world’s most populous and the most naturally, culturally, environmentally diverse region, it gets fewer visitors than the Pacific region, which should be a source of considerable embarrassment. The primary reason is the internecine political conflicts, the latest being the recent India-Pakistan clash over Kashmir, which broke out just a few days the PATA Annual Summit in Turkiye. Under the Modi government, India is now the Asian epicentre of the Clash of Civilisations. It is diplomatically and politically at loggerheads with China, Pakistan and Bangladesh, all populous countries in its immediate neighbourhood and potentially source of millions of visitors, if geopolitical relations were good.

[] Thailand, always a front-runner and crisis-manager par excellence, is feeling the impact of multi-pronged political conflicts. It is expected to end 2025 with well below pre-Covid figures, due to its own domestic controversies, the latest border standoff with neighbouring Cambodia and the Israel-Palestine conflict. Thailand is a popular Rest & Recreation holiday spot for Israeli reservists and military personnel, who get visa-free access. However, Israeli arrivals are set for a slump in June due to the hostilities with Iran, with no certainty about recovery. Chinese visitor arrivals have been hit by negative publicity over safety and security concerns. Thailand’s border regions with three of its four overland neighbours — Cambodia, Malaysia and Myanmar — are now in grey-area territory.

[] The other regions are generally doing well. The least affected areas are China and Northeast Asia which will have to deal only with the doing-business aspects such as facilitation, competition and accessibility.

Due to the repeated mention of geopolitical challenges, one participant asked the point-blank question: “What can we do about it?” Prof Liu could only offer a generic answer about the need for a greater sense of “humanity” and more cultural understanding amongst peoples.

Both the PATA leadership and membership need to ask themselves that same question.

An association which claims to be the “Voice of Asia-Pacific tourism” is today chaired by an American, whose country is at the centre of nearly all these geopolitical conflicts. Mr Peter Semone is well aware of the impact and has flagged the threat of societal and political polarisation as an “existential threat.” Now that PATA’s own statistics can verify that the threat is real, he will need to walk the talk of his own policy prescriptions about promoting peace and “meaningful tourism.”

The PATA forecasting webinar promised that the data and analysis would deliver “essential insights to help you (industry policymakers, business leaders, tourism strategists) build adaptive strategies and leverage growth opportunities in this pivotal phase.” It said participants would “understand how global macroeconomic shifts, climate action, visa liberalisation, and technological innovation are reshaping tourism flows”. They could expect to “discover key source markets driving demand in the post-recovery landscape – with a focus on evolving preferences, demographics, and travel purposes.”

All great promises, but deliverable only in the absence of geopolitical and other external shocks. Precisely because they are man-made, such shocks are both preventable and preemptable. Since moving its HQ to Thailand in 1999, PATA itself has been hit by multiple man-made shocks such as the Sept 2001 attacks in New York and the Bali bombing in 2002. It has been unable to deal with the fallout, leading to a dilution of its own relevance, influence and value-proposition over the years. The decline in memberships proves that.

The PATA forecast webinar was both an eye-opener and a wake-up call. Just like climate change, the data now prove a direct relation between geopolitical debacles and tourism flows. PATA can no longer sweep geopolitical challenges under the carpet. The PATA dues-paying membership is demanding answers and solutions. Fancy slogans and clarion-call speeches may not be of much help come the next crisis.