
28 Jan, 2025
Powerful book explains why Thailand is the “Coup Capital of Asia”, and what could happen next
Bangkok – To visualise Thailand’s development scenarios over the next 10 years, read “The Praetorian Kingdom”, a powerful, detailed account of Thailand’s military from its founding in 1852 up until 2023, its relations with the Thai monarchy and the political establishment. A masterpiece of historical research, the book shows that although power and authority overtly are vested in a bicameral elected/appointed Parliament and Cabinet, the real power is wielded by a “Khakistocracy”, an unaccountable body politic whose methods of control have evolved over time, but the purpose remains the same.
Why is this book relevant to Travel & Tourism? Because the instability caused by leadership power struggles have had a direct impact on visitor arrivals.
Externally, Thailand is a marketed as a friendly, hospitable, tolerant country. Internally, however, the power struggles have led to a record 14 coups and other political confrontations, both bloody and bloodless. Since the formation of the Tourism Authority of Thailand in 1960, these power struggles have repeatedly disrupted tourism, causing enormous economic damage both in terms of the direct impact as well as the wasted resources deployed for crisis recovery programmes.
Military coups and political confrontations have been the most frequently recurring crises impacting Thai Travel & Tourism over the years.
The above figures are well worth more detailed academic research. In general, however, the more violent the confrontation, the worse the impact. In some years where visitor arrivals have risen in spite of a coup or political clash, such as 2010, it is because the arrivals were already high before the crisis and then bounced back after the Travel & Tourism industry mobilised its recovery campaigns.
As Travel & Tourism is now an economic mainstay for Thailand, and already under severe pressure across multiple fronts, the last thing it needs is yet another self-inflicted crisis. However, the chronological narrative in the book makes it obvious that such a crisis is almost inevitable as multiple demographic, political, financial and technological forces converge and the inescapable laws of both Nature and Karma kick in.
The book is authored by Prof Paul Chambers. Here is his professional pedigree cited in the book.
In his introduction to the nearly 700-page book, Prof Chambers said he set out to answer three principal questions over the seven-year research effort: 1) Why did Thailand evolve to become a praetorian kingdom? 2) What is the detailed history of Thai praetorianism? And 3) Why has Thai military influence across politics never been curtailed?
He also asked four secondary questions: 1) Have there ever been security-sector reform efforts, and have they ever taken hold? 2) Why does Thailand’s military remain such an obstacle to democratization in 2023? 3) What has been the history of military-monarchy relations in Thailand? 4) And how have senior military officials intervened in Thai democratization efforts?
These slides from his lecture at the Siam Society on January 23 explain the contents of the book. It reads like a thriller, full of twists and turns, intrigues and machinations, backstabbing and skulduggery. It also contains many detailed exposes, especially about the role of the U.S. government in influencing Thai decisions.
As this is a meticulous record of history, Prof Chambers, like all historians, tell his readers what they need to hear, not what they want to hear. His choice of words in many areas is brutal. Interestingly, he makes no call on whether the role of the military has benefitted Thailand. That crucial question leaves the door open for extensive follow-up cost-benefit analytical research.
The future challenge facing Thailand’s power-brokers is how to preserve the status-quo without disturbing the peace. Here are his conclusions:
The book was published by the Yusof Ishak Institute of Singapore and is available on its website here:
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